Lebanon being part of the deal requirement by Iran is a brilliant tactical move. It tests how serious the US is in keeping up their end of the deal and it causes severe infighting internally in the US. Iran managed to cause conflict between two allies.
Quite right. Prediction: Iran suspends talks (but keeps Hormuz open) whenever Israel attacks, Israel can't help itself, it keeps attacking, so in 60 days, no substantive discussions have occurred. So what does the US do then?
Israel invaded Lebanon and found massive amounts of tunnels and military equipment. Hezbollah itself has been very open with it amassing an arsenal on the Israeli border. The Israelis do not want this. They do not want Hezbollah to get their own Oct 7 date. They have acted military and also diplomatically with the Lebanese government on this issue.
The USA can exert incredible on pressure Israel but will not be able to change this. The US has limited control over Lebanon and has no control over Hezbollah. These are all third parties who did not sign the MoU.
The MoU should between the parties who signed it. The US should decouple the Hezbollah-Israel war from the Iranian one. As a starting point, there are 2000km between the Strait of Hormuz and the Israeli-Lebanon border.
> Israel invaded Lebanon and found massive amounts of tunnels and military equipment.
After Gaza I will need verified by third party evidence of this.
Also what business does Israel have to complain about another states tunnels and weapons? I don't agree with Israel having nuclear weapons, it doesn't give me the right to decide on my own to go into Israel and try to take them away.
This is in an area that had an international agreement for demilitarization - with UN peacekeepers that were supposed to prevent that.
Also, the invasion came after the north of Israel had been evacuated for more than a year due to constant rocket and missile attacks from that area into Israel.
The “third party” that was supposed to prevent that did absolutely nothing.
You might want to add that it was not just an international agreement for demilitarization, Hezbollah actually signed a treaty they were going to demilitarize and never did ...
UN never responded to anything, not even when Hezbollah started killing UN soldiers.
All 4 were killed in relation to the planting of explosive devices on public roads. The two Indonesian UN soldiers drove into a IED set on a public road, and it killed them. The French soldier came under automatic weapons fire after an IED was triggered somehow (ie. it didn't hit their convoy). The Irish soldier was part of a convoy, the car he was in got lost, drove into a village where Hezbollah was installing weapons and was shot at by a crowd along with 3 other soldiers in the same vehicle. The 3 other Irish soldiers survived.
Lebanon convicted 6 people (all in relation the Irish UN soldier case). Video evidence was submitted for 5 of the 6 convicted where they identified themselves as hezbollah (you know those videos hezbollah, Iran and hamas post when one of their members gets killed? They record those ahead of time and someone obtained them and showed them to the court). No arrests were ever made, no other cases were ever brought.
Not a single one of the convicted ever turned up to court or ever saw a second inside a jail cell.
> The US should decouple the Hezbollah-Israel war from the Iranian one.
Inclusion of Lebanon in the cease-fire is an Iranian condition, not an American one. Since Iran clearly has the leverage here, it's unclear what you expect the US to do to cause this decoupling.
Realpolitik: the decisions being made in Israel must be tougher than ever right now. They are staring at the prospect of their greatest ally funding their greatest enemy.
From the outside, at this very moment, the adventure in Iran appears to have been a huge miscalculation.
It's even better long term strategically for Iran.
They now know they can close the straight whenever they please and the mightiest military in the world is not able to open it back up.
The straight and the confidence in their ability to survive complete air dominance by two of the most sophisticated military forces in the world is Irans new A-Bomb.
Which is a complete disaster for Israel.
Israelis never need to forget two things before the next election, the Oct 7th atrocities were carried out by Hamas, and everyone who participated deserves to be hunted and killed with the same brutality they murdered and raped elderly and children with, but equally important, it was the Israeli PM who allowed this to happen by his inflated ego, creating an "impenetrable" high tech border with sensors and outposts that were beaten by a few caterpillars and hanggliders.
For Bibi not going to jail he has to keep his forever wars up so the people of Israel are distracted and not able to finally mourn the victims properly and asking the important question why did this happen in the first place and who needs to take full responsibility for it.
So Iran trapped the Israeli PM who thought he could control Trump and the narrative and they got completely outplayed by the Iranians.
Iran managed to get Bibi the Zelensky treatment and now the US President is publicly humiliating the Israeli PM into submission by letting trump ramble publicly about how weak, insane and isolated Bibi is.
So either Bibi becomes Trump's bitch and misses all of his war goals which will get him eaten alive by the Israelis asking themselves why they all suffered through this? Or he keeps whatever dignity is left in that old meat bag and can kiss his freedom and legacy goodbye.
Oh and lets not forget the US lost this war using AI. Which speaks a lot against using the technology in a military context. It produced a lot of noise / kills which did not translate into a better strategic outcome, more control or in the end winning the war.
It was clear that Israel did not want the peace agreement so they were going to sabotage it and this will show that USA has not any control or power over what Israel is doing.
Plus regardless, do you seriously believe Iran is refusing a peace treaty to defending Lebanon or the people of Lebanon? How insane do you have to be to believe that?
I dont think anyone believes Iran is worried about the people of Lebanon. The point people are making is that for some reason Iran has all the power in a supposed cease fire and used that power to add requirements that were not possible to enforce by the US. US was outplayed and outsmarted by a supposed "lesser" nation. Now when the US makes "defensive attacks" on Iran when Iran once again closes the straight due to Israeli violations (even though they were not part of the MoU), it further erodes the US moral high ground.
If the latter is no, I do hope the US finally ends military aid to Israel. I really doubt it will happen, but if the record says it should be ok, then that would be really great.
We'll see what happens but I read that the parts about Lebanon are more to placate a few hardliners in Iran but won't actually be followed through on. The economic parts of the deal are just too good in irans favor to put it at risk.
Why would any country trust the current US regime to follow through on its commitments? They weren't even able to maintain a ceasefire during the agreed-upon ceasefire period?
Beyond that, what would prevent the next administration from unilaterally decreeing this current agreement null and void as was done with the JCPOA? They certainly aren't going to want to bear the brunt of political unpopularity of paying out billions in war reparations.
Because you're always looking about a comparison, a choice. Holding the world economy hostage placates some egos at incredible cost to Iran ... or agreeing to the US commitments, problems and all.
Lebanon being part of the deal requirement by Iran is a brilliant tactical move. It tests how serious the US is in keeping up their end of the deal and it causes severe infighting internally in the US. Iran managed to cause conflict between two allies.
Quite right. Prediction: Iran suspends talks (but keeps Hormuz open) whenever Israel attacks, Israel can't help itself, it keeps attacking, so in 60 days, no substantive discussions have occurred. So what does the US do then?
> Israel can't help itself.
Israel invaded Lebanon and found massive amounts of tunnels and military equipment. Hezbollah itself has been very open with it amassing an arsenal on the Israeli border. The Israelis do not want this. They do not want Hezbollah to get their own Oct 7 date. They have acted military and also diplomatically with the Lebanese government on this issue.
The USA can exert incredible on pressure Israel but will not be able to change this. The US has limited control over Lebanon and has no control over Hezbollah. These are all third parties who did not sign the MoU.
The MoU should between the parties who signed it. The US should decouple the Hezbollah-Israel war from the Iranian one. As a starting point, there are 2000km between the Strait of Hormuz and the Israeli-Lebanon border.
> Israel invaded Lebanon and found massive amounts of tunnels and military equipment.
After Gaza I will need verified by third party evidence of this.
Also what business does Israel have to complain about another states tunnels and weapons? I don't agree with Israel having nuclear weapons, it doesn't give me the right to decide on my own to go into Israel and try to take them away.
This is in an area that had an international agreement for demilitarization - with UN peacekeepers that were supposed to prevent that.
Also, the invasion came after the north of Israel had been evacuated for more than a year due to constant rocket and missile attacks from that area into Israel.
The “third party” that was supposed to prevent that did absolutely nothing.
You might want to add that it was not just an international agreement for demilitarization, Hezbollah actually signed a treaty they were going to demilitarize and never did ...
UN never responded to anything, not even when Hezbollah started killing UN soldiers.
https://www.reuters.com/world/irish-soldier-killed-un-peacek...
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/unifil-says-one-pe...
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/lebanon-pm-condemn...
All 4 were killed in relation to the planting of explosive devices on public roads. The two Indonesian UN soldiers drove into a IED set on a public road, and it killed them. The French soldier came under automatic weapons fire after an IED was triggered somehow (ie. it didn't hit their convoy). The Irish soldier was part of a convoy, the car he was in got lost, drove into a village where Hezbollah was installing weapons and was shot at by a crowd along with 3 other soldiers in the same vehicle. The 3 other Irish soldiers survived.
Lebanon convicted 6 people (all in relation the Irish UN soldier case). Video evidence was submitted for 5 of the 6 convicted where they identified themselves as hezbollah (you know those videos hezbollah, Iran and hamas post when one of their members gets killed? They record those ahead of time and someone obtained them and showed them to the court). No arrests were ever made, no other cases were ever brought.
Not a single one of the convicted ever turned up to court or ever saw a second inside a jail cell.
> The US should decouple the Hezbollah-Israel war from the Iranian one.
Inclusion of Lebanon in the cease-fire is an Iranian condition, not an American one. Since Iran clearly has the leverage here, it's unclear what you expect the US to do to cause this decoupling.
Realpolitik: the decisions being made in Israel must be tougher than ever right now. They are staring at the prospect of their greatest ally funding their greatest enemy.
From the outside, at this very moment, the adventure in Iran appears to have been a huge miscalculation.
It's even better long term strategically for Iran.
They now know they can close the straight whenever they please and the mightiest military in the world is not able to open it back up.
The straight and the confidence in their ability to survive complete air dominance by two of the most sophisticated military forces in the world is Irans new A-Bomb.
Which is a complete disaster for Israel.
Israelis never need to forget two things before the next election, the Oct 7th atrocities were carried out by Hamas, and everyone who participated deserves to be hunted and killed with the same brutality they murdered and raped elderly and children with, but equally important, it was the Israeli PM who allowed this to happen by his inflated ego, creating an "impenetrable" high tech border with sensors and outposts that were beaten by a few caterpillars and hanggliders.
For Bibi not going to jail he has to keep his forever wars up so the people of Israel are distracted and not able to finally mourn the victims properly and asking the important question why did this happen in the first place and who needs to take full responsibility for it.
So Iran trapped the Israeli PM who thought he could control Trump and the narrative and they got completely outplayed by the Iranians.
Iran managed to get Bibi the Zelensky treatment and now the US President is publicly humiliating the Israeli PM into submission by letting trump ramble publicly about how weak, insane and isolated Bibi is.
So either Bibi becomes Trump's bitch and misses all of his war goals which will get him eaten alive by the Israelis asking themselves why they all suffered through this? Or he keeps whatever dignity is left in that old meat bag and can kiss his freedom and legacy goodbye.
Oh and lets not forget the US lost this war using AI. Which speaks a lot against using the technology in a military context. It produced a lot of noise / kills which did not translate into a better strategic outcome, more control or in the end winning the war.
It was clear that Israel did not want the peace agreement so they were going to sabotage it and this will show that USA has not any control or power over what Israel is doing.
It was Hezbollah that attacked ... like always.
Plus regardless, do you seriously believe Iran is refusing a peace treaty to defending Lebanon or the people of Lebanon? How insane do you have to be to believe that?
I dont think anyone believes Iran is worried about the people of Lebanon. The point people are making is that for some reason Iran has all the power in a supposed cease fire and used that power to add requirements that were not possible to enforce by the US. US was outplayed and outsmarted by a supposed "lesser" nation. Now when the US makes "defensive attacks" on Iran when Iran once again closes the straight due to Israeli violations (even though they were not part of the MoU), it further erodes the US moral high ground.
There is a tenancy to believe Israel is a vassal state that does the US's bidding. The actual record says not really.
And also Israel is only able to resist being conquered by it's Arab neighbors because of the US. Record says also no.
If the latter is no, I do hope the US finally ends military aid to Israel. I really doubt it will happen, but if the record says it should be ok, then that would be really great.
Israel itself is in favor of this, to reduce US influence on its arms exports. Everybody wins.
We'll see what happens but I read that the parts about Lebanon are more to placate a few hardliners in Iran but won't actually be followed through on. The economic parts of the deal are just too good in irans favor to put it at risk.
Why would any country trust the current US regime to follow through on its commitments? They weren't even able to maintain a ceasefire during the agreed-upon ceasefire period?
Beyond that, what would prevent the next administration from unilaterally decreeing this current agreement null and void as was done with the JCPOA? They certainly aren't going to want to bear the brunt of political unpopularity of paying out billions in war reparations.
Because you're always looking about a comparison, a choice. Holding the world economy hostage placates some egos at incredible cost to Iran ... or agreeing to the US commitments, problems and all.
The superior option is obviously to trust the US.
It would be hard for this to be any more predictable. Trump walked straight into the obvious trap that the last 12 presidents managed not to step in.
Iran will never want peace, just like Russia. Terrorists just do not give up.
[flagged]
Seems Trump can't control his boy.