> The filing directly discloses for the first time that Anthropic has agreed $895.4bn in purchase commitments and lease agreements for computing power and infrastructure, of which $447.5bn is expected to be incurred before the end of 2030.
So $448 billion committed, with unclear cancellation terms, through the next ~48 months.
Clearly this will be rising over time, but even a naive division results in $10bn per month of compute spending.
That honestly doesn't seem so bad relative to some of the claims I've seen? Their Q3 revenue is about $5.6bn per month and it's rising. They have so much money in the bank waiting to be deployed that they get a billion dollars of interest per year. Investors are desperate to put more money into the company.
They spend a lot on compute, but rolling it up into cumulative spend numbers makes it sound scarier.
If I’m mathing right, your own numbers suggest they’re spending nearly double their quarterly revenue, every month. That sounds far from reasonable to me.
And half of it will happen by the end of 2030. I don't know finance well enough to conjecture that these purchases and lease agreements via equity, but maybe that's their plan to reduce the hit. Or, if they will trade tokens for goods and services as part of these agreements. No clue if that is something they could do.
It just seems like, given what we know about how things have worked so far in the AI space, that paying for the entirety of these agreements is not likely.
And also, because no one seems to see it, negative profit for the foreseeable future whilst competitors have locked in "good enough" and a fraction of the price.
their this year projection at a minimum is above 60B? and its not going to be the same every year.. so not sure how 30 years of revenue is your estimate.
The commitments are over 19 years, but they expect to spend half of that, $447.5bn, by the end of 2030 - so about $105bn per year for the first few years.
Their 2026 revenue looks like it will be ~$67bn so clearly they're anticipating continued significant revenue growth for this to make sense.
> If we are unable to differentiate our models, platform, and applications from competing offerings through enhanced functionality, superior performance, better safety features and reliability, lower cost, or other factors, demand for our models, platform, and applications may decline. The rapid pace of technological change in AI means that models, platforms, and applications can quickly become outdated. We must continuously invest in research and development to maintain our competitive position, but there is no guarantee that our investments will result in models, platforms, and applications that customers prefer over competing alternatives.
Zero percent chance they can grow fast enough to meet their financial obligations without taking on some extremely expensive debt that will increase and compound their losses.
At this point I think the goal is:
Step 1: Go public
Step 2: Allow exit for early investors
Step 3: file bankruptcy
Step 4: Amazon or Google “rescues” the company at pennies to the dollar on the already heavily diluted valuation.
I think that’s OP’s exact point. It’s not just the capital costs of the build out but the operations costs of running them that can be hard to predict.
If they slowdown just a bit more (and growth just slowed) they’re bankrupt.
If they grow like no startup in history they just eek by and manage to barely pay their bills. Impressive, but not worth anything close to $1T plus valuation.
ohh boy, guess who's gonna pay for all of this ? Retail investors of course. VCs want to get out quickly hence the crazy valuation, institutionnal investors are already heavily positionned on this through energy, semiconductors and cloud actors ..
Like all other problems of the future, this too can simply be solved by throwing more AI at it. The next great work of the frontier labs must not merely be to replace human labor, but also human consumption. With the ouroboros so complete, all such petty human economic concerns will cease to have relevance, as we all cleanly divide out of the equation at last.
That didn't stop any of the previous financial bubbles, financial crises, and progress-induced suffering.
If you make it through the devastation, you'll be one of the richest and most important people in the world. If not, throw a random frontman in front of the wolves and disappear into the background.
$900B ???? With a UI that's basically made to either make or keep people retarded? A company that reads like it was written by some off-the-shelve-low-effort pre-patch-Hi-I'm-Devon in Silicon?
What the fuck is wrong with people on the Roadblock-Street? Are you that fucking retarded? It's 20 fucking 27 ... An LLM that can USEANDNOMORE github and READANDNOMORE data bases??? HOOOOOLY FUCKING SHIT CORONA MUST have hit your billionaire brains hard, man ... fuuuuuuck
FYI: I took 86 hours worth of frontier model riot logistics down with a drunken prompt. THEY didn't even get from Paris to Leipzig. The got all the way through Bavaria, tho. What I'm saying is your frontier AIs aren't worth the squatting shit I sometimes take on a walk through some forest with ma dawg, yo. YOUR AI COMPANIES ARE ESSENTIALLY as valuable as the people that casually cracked some problems while taking care of toddlers 54 weeks ago ... hell knows what they been thinking since. that's a lot of value, tbh, but value that has been repeatedly recreated by people who don't have much time to read. top dollar programmers were busy with VIRTUALLY changing diapers, yo, while others done that IRL. AND FUCKING INVESTORS AND "TECH HUBS" and bluhbluh and companies making sure a device can stay within two striped lines and bluhbluhbluh think come dumb rudimentary collection of snippets is worth half plus a billion or so top dollars, wahahahahahahahahahaha
FYI2: I know "riot logistics" is a bit too much for you ... 'too many ... "variable-length-and-H U M A N-parameters" for you nootropic ice bath 5%er kind' but I have faith in you ... just drop the designer stuff and use your actual brains instead of that piece of shit drugged up shit your doctor and fanboy culture prescribed, .... "planetary" neighbors
FIY3: baking a few cakes would be enough to have my own apartment, a 20 thousand dollar rig and 500 girls in 365 days, btw, ... hyperscaling inevitably killing me due to the advice I got on this forum within the next 6 months... no srsly, ... I love the best of you, especially the organically and artificially non-conform neuro-whateverevolutioncomesupwith
> The filing directly discloses for the first time that Anthropic has agreed $895.4bn in purchase commitments and lease agreements for computing power and infrastructure, of which $447.5bn is expected to be incurred before the end of 2030.
So $448 billion committed, with unclear cancellation terms, through the next ~48 months.
Clearly this will be rising over time, but even a naive division results in $10bn per month of compute spending.
That honestly doesn't seem so bad relative to some of the claims I've seen? Their Q3 revenue is about $5.6bn per month and it's rising. They have so much money in the bank waiting to be deployed that they get a billion dollars of interest per year. Investors are desperate to put more money into the company.
They spend a lot on compute, but rolling it up into cumulative spend numbers makes it sound scarier.
If I’m mathing right, your own numbers suggest they’re spending nearly double their quarterly revenue, every month. That sounds far from reasonable to me.
They gave revenue for quarter per month, not per quarter.
$900b contract spending / $30b = 30 years of revenue.
That’s wild. They have committed to absolutely insane growth with no margin for error.
And half of it will happen by the end of 2030. I don't know finance well enough to conjecture that these purchases and lease agreements via equity, but maybe that's their plan to reduce the hit. Or, if they will trade tokens for goods and services as part of these agreements. No clue if that is something they could do.
It just seems like, given what we know about how things have worked so far in the AI space, that paying for the entirety of these agreements is not likely.
And also, because no one seems to see it, negative profit for the foreseeable future whilst competitors have locked in "good enough" and a fraction of the price.
their this year projection at a minimum is above 60B? and its not going to be the same every year.. so not sure how 30 years of revenue is your estimate.
Hey they're just like me and my mortgage! And I consider myself very high AAA investment grade.
The commitments are over 19 years, but they expect to spend half of that, $447.5bn, by the end of 2030 - so about $105bn per year for the first few years.
Their 2026 revenue looks like it will be ~$67bn so clearly they're anticipating continued significant revenue growth for this to make sense.
If you are going bankrupt, you may as well go bankrupt spectacularly.
Or if you know a bailout is coming, might as well go full steam ahead
The George Costanza approach to bankrupting a business.
So basically it works out if they become a Microsoft level company
It works out if they can keep up basically one more quarter of their previous growth rate and then plateau for the rest of time.
The challenge there is competition. If other providers can match or beat their model quality at a lower cost that revenue could dry up pretty quickly.
Or as Anthropic put it on page 42 of their S-1: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2130357/000162828026...
> If we are unable to differentiate our models, platform, and applications from competing offerings through enhanced functionality, superior performance, better safety features and reliability, lower cost, or other factors, demand for our models, platform, and applications may decline. The rapid pace of technological change in AI means that models, platforms, and applications can quickly become outdated. We must continuously invest in research and development to maintain our competitive position, but there is no guarantee that our investments will result in models, platforms, and applications that customers prefer over competing alternatives.
You mean East India Company
Zero percent chance they can grow fast enough to meet their financial obligations without taking on some extremely expensive debt that will increase and compound their losses.
At this point I think the goal is:
Step 1: Go public
Step 2: Allow exit for early investors
Step 3: file bankruptcy
Step 4: Amazon or Google “rescues” the company at pennies to the dollar on the already heavily diluted valuation.
You genuinely think that the goal of this business is to go bankrupt and be sold for scrap?
I am being sardonic, but I honestly don’t see a path to profitability.
How much to power those data centers? It's kind of meaningless if you can't power them.
They can simply connect to the existing grid and let others look for alternative or cheaper generation. Who's going to stop them?:)
You can just stop using electricity. Have you tried living in a tent? But seriously, rising prices is the solution.
I think that’s OP’s exact point. It’s not just the capital costs of the build out but the operations costs of running them that can be hard to predict.
Pretty insane that sama's $7T target in 2024 wasn't that far off... https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/sam-altman-seeks-trillions-of-do...
If they slowdown just a bit more (and growth just slowed) they’re bankrupt.
If they grow like no startup in history they just eek by and manage to barely pay their bills. Impressive, but not worth anything close to $1T plus valuation.
If they achieve AGI money becomes worthless.
So where’s the upside for investors here?
It makes more sense if you view themselves collectively as Claude, and their IPO is a prompt that ends with "make no mistakes."
If’s fine. They’re the smartest guys in the room.
Discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50337439
I'd also like to reveal a Chapter 11 restructuring of Anthropic in 2029 to cancel these contracts.
I mean, I can't reveal that because I'm just some schmuck. But I'd like to.
They will have to be bailed out. If they go public, leaders will take their money and run and everyone else will be buying up their parts.
ohh boy, guess who's gonna pay for all of this ? Retail investors of course. VCs want to get out quickly hence the crazy valuation, institutionnal investors are already heavily positionned on this through energy, semiconductors and cloud actors ..
i'm pretty sure the plan is for labor to pay for it, by giving up their pay, involuntarily.
Going to be hard for companies to pay for inference if consumers don't have any money to buy their products.
Like all other problems of the future, this too can simply be solved by throwing more AI at it. The next great work of the frontier labs must not merely be to replace human labor, but also human consumption. With the ouroboros so complete, all such petty human economic concerns will cease to have relevance, as we all cleanly divide out of the equation at last.
I think that's more or less where we'll end up, sadly.
That didn't stop any of the previous financial bubbles, financial crises, and progress-induced suffering.
If you make it through the devastation, you'll be one of the richest and most important people in the world. If not, throw a random frontman in front of the wolves and disappear into the background.
[dead]
I dont want to be a bag holder, but the indices seem to be being gamed to get retail investors involved
makes me wonder if these retail investors are noticing how everyone keeps mentioning them about holding the bag
I'm gonna be straight here: wahahahahah.
$900B ???? With a UI that's basically made to either make or keep people retarded? A company that reads like it was written by some off-the-shelve-low-effort pre-patch-Hi-I'm-Devon in Silicon?
What the fuck is wrong with people on the Roadblock-Street? Are you that fucking retarded? It's 20 fucking 27 ... An LLM that can USEANDNOMORE github and READANDNOMORE data bases??? HOOOOOLY FUCKING SHIT CORONA MUST have hit your billionaire brains hard, man ... fuuuuuuck
FYI: I took 86 hours worth of frontier model riot logistics down with a drunken prompt. THEY didn't even get from Paris to Leipzig. The got all the way through Bavaria, tho. What I'm saying is your frontier AIs aren't worth the squatting shit I sometimes take on a walk through some forest with ma dawg, yo. YOUR AI COMPANIES ARE ESSENTIALLY as valuable as the people that casually cracked some problems while taking care of toddlers 54 weeks ago ... hell knows what they been thinking since. that's a lot of value, tbh, but value that has been repeatedly recreated by people who don't have much time to read. top dollar programmers were busy with VIRTUALLY changing diapers, yo, while others done that IRL. AND FUCKING INVESTORS AND "TECH HUBS" and bluhbluh and companies making sure a device can stay within two striped lines and bluhbluhbluh think come dumb rudimentary collection of snippets is worth half plus a billion or so top dollars, wahahahahahahahahahaha
FYI2: I know "riot logistics" is a bit too much for you ... 'too many ... "variable-length-and-H U M A N-parameters" for you nootropic ice bath 5%er kind' but I have faith in you ... just drop the designer stuff and use your actual brains instead of that piece of shit drugged up shit your doctor and fanboy culture prescribed, .... "planetary" neighbors
FIY3: baking a few cakes would be enough to have my own apartment, a 20 thousand dollar rig and 500 girls in 365 days, btw, ... hyperscaling inevitably killing me due to the advice I got on this forum within the next 6 months... no srsly, ... I love the best of you, especially the organically and artificially non-conform neuro-whateverevolutioncomesupwith
please carry this
Anyone have a non paywall link?
https://wallhop.io/https://www.ft.com/content/4d91dbab-6fe4-...
[dead]